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CS Armoury

Case ROI

What one opening returns on average at today's prices, against the cost of the container and any key it needs. A positive return means the average drop is worth more than it costs to open; any single opening is still a gamble.

Smallest loss per case
eSports 2013 Winter Case
−29.6% on $12.54
Average return, weapon cases
−55.2%
Across 43 weapon cases with prices
Weapon cases with a positive return
0 of 43
At current reference prices

Weapon cases by return

ContainerPriceReturn
eSports 2013 Winter CaseRare drop12 items + 65 rare specials$10.05−29.6%
CS:GO Weapon Case 3Rare drop12 items + 65 rare specials$11.76−35.4%
Glove CaseRare drop17 items + 24 rare specials$8.99−39.1%
Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseRare drop14 items + 65 rare specials$4.14−41.2%
Operation Hydra CaseRare drop17 items + 24 rare specials$25.42−43.8%
Operation Wildfire CaseRare drop16 items + 13 rare specials$2.49−45.1%
CS:GO Weapon Case 2Rare drop12 items + 65 rare specials$18.71−45.8%
eSports 2014 Summer CaseRare drop17 items + 65 rare specials$10.26−47.5%
Gamma CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$2.67−48.2%
Prisma CaseRare drop17 items + 28 rare specials$1.00−49.7%
Horizon CaseRare drop17 items + 52 rare specials$1.37−50.3%
Huntsman Weapon CaseRare drop15 items + 13 rare specials$6.73−50.4%
Shadow CaseRare drop16 items + 13 rare specials$1.48−50.5%
Gamma 2 CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$2.65−50.9%
Operation Riptide CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$6.28−51.4%
Shattered Web CaseRare drop17 items + 52 rare specials$3.65−51.4%
Operation Broken Fang CaseRare drop17 items + 24 rare specials$5.11−51.4%
Chroma CaseRare drop14 items + 30 rare specials$4.14−51.5%
Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseRare drop13 items + 65 rare specials$3.23−52.6%
Revolver CaseRare drop17 items + 65 rare specials$2.48−52.9%
Chroma 2 CaseRare drop15 items + 30 rare specials$3.47−53.1%
Winter Offensive Weapon CaseRare drop13 items + 65 rare specials$8.53−53.1%
Operation Breakout Weapon CaseRare drop14 items + 13 rare specials$6.68−53.2%
Falchion CaseRare drop16 items + 13 rare specials$1.46−53.4%
Spectrum CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$3.08−54.3%
Prisma 2 CaseRare drop17 items + 28 rare specials$0.92−55.5%
Chroma 3 CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$3.08−55.6%
Snakebite CaseRare drop17 items + 24 rare specials$0.26−56.5%
Gallery CaseArmory17 items + 13 rare specials$0.54−56.6%
Spectrum 2 CaseRare drop17 items + 30 rare specials$2.58−57.6%
Danger Zone CaseRare drop17 items + 52 rare specials$0.90−58.5%
CS20 CaseRare drop17 items + 13 rare specials$0.72−59.1%
Dreams & Nightmares CaseActive drop17 items + 30 rare specials$0.86−61.7%
Fever CaseActive drop17 items + 28 rare specials$0.54−66.0%
Recoil CaseActive drop17 items + 24 rare specials$0.19−66.9%
Clutch CaseRare drop17 items + 24 rare specials$0.39−68.3%
CS:GO Weapon CaseRare drop9 items + 65 rare specials$100.76−69.2%
Revolution CaseActive drop17 items + 24 rare specials$0.15−70.4%
Fracture CaseActive drop17 items + 52 rare specials$0.33−70.5%
Operation Bravo CaseRare drop15 items + 65 rare specials$52.99−71.2%
eSports 2013 CaseRare drop9 items + 65 rare specials$42.07−72.2%
Kilowatt CaseActive drop17 items + 13 rare specials$0.08−72.3%
Anubis Collection Package19 items$1.66−77.9%

How it's calculated

Each rarity grade is five times rarer than the one below it, matching Valve's published case odds (Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%), and a knife or gloves drops 0.26% of the time. A capsule that skips a grade keeps the gap, so gold autographs are 25 times rarer than foil ones when a grade sits between them. Within a grade every item is equally likely.

Floats follow the standard wear distribution: a band is chosen first (0 to 0.07 at 3%, 0.07 to 0.15 at 24%, 0.15 to 0.38 at 33%, 0.38 to 0.45 at 24%, 0.45 to 1 at 16%), then the value is mapped onto the finish's own float range, which sets the odds of each exterior. Weapon cases roll StatTrak™ one time in ten. Each outcome is valued at its current reference price: the median of the cheapest asks on the main cash markets that agree with each other.

The cost to open is the case's reference price plus a key where one is needed, at the key's market price but never more than the $2.49 Steam store price. Selling fees aren't included, so the realisable return is a few percent lower.