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CS Armoury

Case ROI

What one opening returns on average at today's prices, against the cost of the container and any key it needs. A positive return means the average drop is worth more than it costs to open; any single opening is still a gamble.

Smallest loss per souvenir package
Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package
−41.0% on $2.11
Average return, souvenir packages
−86.1%
Across 163 souvenir packages with prices
Souvenir packages with a positive return
0 of 163
At current reference prices

Souvenir packages by return

ContainerPriceReturn
Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$2.11−41.0%
Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$2.54−51.0%
Paris 2023 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$1.98−51.9%
Copenhagen 2024 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$2.09−54.4%
Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$2.54−55.6%
Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$2.66−57.6%
Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Package16 items$2.31−58.7%
Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package16 items$2.31−58.7%
Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$2.77−59.3%
Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Highlight Package16 items$2.50−59.5%
Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$2.66−59.8%
Shanghai 2024 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$2.94−61.7%
Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$3.27−61.9%
Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Package16 items$2.68−62.2%
Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$3.03−62.8%
Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package16 items$2.59−63.2%
Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Package16 items$2.67−64.3%
Shanghai 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$3.04−64.9%
Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$3.22−65.0%
Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$3.12−65.8%
Budapest 2025 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$3.24−67.0%
Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.36−67.1%
Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$3.31−67.7%
Budapest 2025 Ancient Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$3.32−67.8%
Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package19 items$1.73−69.1%
Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$3.68−69.4%
Austin 2025 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$3.51−69.6%
Austin 2025 Mirage Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$2.58−69.9%
Copenhagen 2024 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.69−71.1%
Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$4.38−71.6%
Budapest 2025 Mirage Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$2.76−71.9%
Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package19 items$4.12−72.7%
Budapest 2025 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.85−72.7%
Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.89−73.1%
Austin 2025 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.89−73.1%
Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$2.95−73.7%
Shanghai 2024 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$3.10−74.9%
Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$25.67−76.8%
Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package19 items$3.44−77.4%
Antwerp 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$4.24−77.5%
Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$26.61−77.7%
London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$26.69−77.7%
Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$1.79−77.8%
Rio 2022 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$4.40−78.4%
Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$5.79−78.5%
Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$5.01−78.7%
Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Package19 items$2.58−79.3%
Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Highlight Package19 items$2.59−79.4%
Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package19 items$5.35−80.0%
Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$36.68−80.8%
Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$2.13−82.3%
Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package19 items$7.03−82.3%
Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package19 items$3.13−82.9%
Stockholm 2021 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$5.75−83.4%
Budapest 2025 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$2.43−83.6%
Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$45.68−84.6%
Budapest 2025 Inferno Souvenir Highlight Package18 items$2.59−84.6%
Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$47.07−85.0%
London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$47.38−85.1%
Boston 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$23.19−85.8%
Copenhagen 2024 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$2.86−86.1%
Berlin 2019 Vertigo Souvenir Package6 items$11.83−86.1%
Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$49.64−86.2%
Budapest 2025 Nuke Souvenir Highlight Package18 items$2.81−86.6%
Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$3.02−86.8%
Copenhagen 2024 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$2.94−87.2%
Shanghai 2024 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$2.99−87.4%
Austin 2025 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$3.27−87.8%
Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$3.18−88.1%
Budapest 2025 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$3.28−88.5%
Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$52.84−88.7%
Austin 2025 Inferno Souvenir Highlight Package18 items$3.63−89.0%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$67.07−89.5%
MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$57.49−89.7%
Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$57.85−89.7%
Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$59.81−90.1%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$59.97−90.1%
Krakow 2017 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$33.32−90.1%
Shanghai 2024 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$4.17−90.5%
Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$72.30−90.5%
Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$74.81−90.6%
Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$65.98−91.0%
MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$78.78−91.1%
Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$4.49−91.1%
Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$4.30−91.2%
Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$80.00−91.4%
Shanghai 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package19 items$6.38−91.6%
Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$82.81−91.7%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$74.76−92.0%
Berlin 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$11.99−92.1%
Austin 2025 Nuke Souvenir Highlight Package18 items$4.88−92.3%
Berlin 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$18.58−92.6%
Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$97.03−92.7%
London 2018 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$20.90−93.4%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$113.07−93.8%
London 2018 Train Souvenir Package15 items$19.07−93.8%
Austin 2025 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$6.33−94.0%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$117.53−94.2%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$58.20−94.3%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$107.83−94.5%
Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$7.24−94.5%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$135.43−94.8%
Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package15 items$24.04−95.1%
MLG Columbus 2016 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$69.85−95.3%
Katowice 2019 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$21.47−95.6%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$74.69−95.6%
Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$9.07−95.6%
Katowice 2019 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$31.93−95.7%
Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$8.94−95.8%
Katowice 2019 Train Souvenir Package15 items$31.97−96.3%
Atlanta 2017 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$38.87−96.5%
Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package15 items$35.79−96.7%
Krakow 2017 Train Souvenir Package15 items$35.95−96.7%
London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$13.15−97.0%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$113.72−97.1%
London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$33.21−97.1%
Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package18 items$14.16−97.2%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$250.00−97.3%
Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package15 items$43.14−97.3%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$53.15−97.4%
Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package15 items$46.00−97.4%
Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$15.92−97.6%
MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$295.36−97.7%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$59.38−97.7%
Cologne 2016 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$60.03−97.7%
Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$43.63−97.8%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$63.95−97.9%
Boston 2018 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$562.97−97.9%
Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$48.41−98.0%
Cologne 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$624.02−98.1%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$625.00−98.1%
Katowice 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$19.91−98.1%
DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$319.11−98.1%
Krakow 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$700.69−98.3%
Atlanta 2017 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$709.26−98.3%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$713.69−98.3%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package15 items$71.37−98.3%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$741.40−98.4%
MLG Columbus 2016 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$744.45−98.4%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package15 items$381.00−98.4%
DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package9 items$475.04−98.6%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$233.55−98.6%
DreamHack 2014 Inferno Souvenir Package6 items$249.00−98.7%
London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package18 items$28.62−98.7%
DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$564.69−98.8%
Krakow 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$79.25−98.8%
MLG Columbus 2016 Train Souvenir Package15 items$100.00−98.8%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$1,089.57−98.9%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package15 items$110.85−98.9%
MLG Columbus 2016 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$135.99−99.0%
Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$99.65−99.0%
EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package91 items$553.73−99.1%
ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$116.87−99.2%
DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$132.04−99.3%
DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package92 items$906.58−99.5%
MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$178.38−99.5%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$360.37−99.6%
DreamHack 2014 Dust II Souvenir Package16 items$467.18−99.7%
ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$327.00−99.7%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$586.85−99.8%
ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package13 items$5,067.32−99.9%
DreamHack 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package15 items$11,145−99.9%
DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package15 items$923.22−99.9%

How it's calculated

Each rarity grade is five times rarer than the one below it, matching Valve's published case odds (Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%), and a knife or gloves drops 0.26% of the time. A capsule that skips a grade keeps the gap, so gold autographs are 25 times rarer than foil ones when a grade sits between them. Within a grade every item is equally likely.

Floats follow the standard wear distribution: a band is chosen first (0 to 0.07 at 3%, 0.07 to 0.15 at 24%, 0.15 to 0.38 at 33%, 0.38 to 0.45 at 24%, 0.45 to 1 at 16%), then the value is mapped onto the finish's own float range, which sets the odds of each exterior. Weapon cases roll StatTrak™ one time in ten. Each outcome is valued at its current reference price: the median of the cheapest asks on the main cash markets that agree with each other.

The cost to open is the case's reference price plus a key where one is needed, at the key's market price but never more than the $2.49 Steam store price. Selling fees aren't included, so the realisable return is a few percent lower.