Case ROI

Each rarity grade is five times rarer than the one below it, matching Valve's published case odds (Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%), and a knife or gloves drops 0.26% of the time. A capsule that skips a grade keeps the gap, so gold autographs are 25 times rarer than foil ones when a grade sits between them. Within a grade every item is equally likely.

Floats follow the standard wear distribution: a band is chosen first (0 to 0.07 at 3%, 0.07 to 0.15 at 24%, 0.15 to 0.38 at 33%, 0.38 to 0.45 at 24%, 0.45 to 1 at 16%), then the value is mapped onto the finish's own float range, which sets the odds of each exterior. Weapon cases roll StatTrak™ one time in ten. Each outcome is valued at its current reference price: the median of the cheapest asks on the main cash markets that agree with each other.

The cost to open is the case's reference price plus a key where one is needed, at the key's market price but never more than the $2.49 Steam store price. Selling fees aren't included, so the realisable return is a few percent lower.